Eden McCallum – Economic and Business Outlook, November 2025

Business leaders’ resilience is being tested in a volatile, uncertain world and challenging trading conditions. In spite of this, there are signs of optimism among company bosses that better times could lie ahead, for their businesses at least.

This is a key finding from the latest Eden McCallum economic and business outlook survey, carried out with HighPoint Associates. Over 350 business leaders in the UK, the US, the Netherlands and the rest of the world were asked for their views on the domestic and global economy and future business prospects. Their varied responses reflect a world that is in a state of flux, but which may also be poised for more rapid growth.

Economic outlook

Almost half (46%) of respondents are pessimistic about the global economy, and only 23% are optimistic. Both figures reflect a more negative outlook compared with a year ago, just after the US election. Similarly, 62% are pessimistic about their domestic economy and only 22% are optimistic, also a gloomier finding than at the same point in 2024. And yet two-thirds say they are optimistic about their own business’s prospects, an increase on last year. Indeed, this more hopeful view about the outlook for the individual respondent’s business has grown every year since 2022. The world outside may look daunting, but in the C-suite business leaders can see a positive way forward.

In the UK, gloom about the domestic economy is particularly pronounced: 85% are pessimistic (3 in 10 ‘very pessimistic’) and only 5% are optimistic. Pre-Budget anxiety (and confusion) will be playing a part in this – although as many as 63% of UK respondents are still hopeful for their own business. US respondents are even more bullish: 72% say good times lie ahead for their business. In the Netherlands, the outlook is more balanced, with a roughly equal share of optimists and pessimists as far as the global and domestic economies are concerned. However, the results in the Netherlands also show the lowest levels of pessimism about the economy and highest levels of business optimism since we began the survey in 2022, likely linked to the improved performance of centrist parties in the recent election.

Overall, the three biggest threats to national economies are seen as domestic politics (53% say so), geopolitical instability (48%) and trade barriers or tariffs (45%). But the picture differs greatly across countries.  In the UK, domestic politics are by far the biggest cause for concern (66%), and this has sharply increased (from 37%) in the past 12 months.

Geopolitical instability is the dominant concern for Dutch and rest of the world respondents (around 75% cite this – nearly double the proportion citing it in the UK and 2.5x the US). For US business leaders, trade barriers are the biggest issue (54%), although domestic politics (48%) and inflation (44%) also loom large.

Business outlook

Looking annually, gradual but steadily rising optimism over the past three years characterises our respondents’ views on the outlook for their business: two-thirds are now positive and only 17% pessimistic. This represents a sharp rebound from lows in Q2 this year at the peak of the tariff upheaval: in the past six months, overall optimism rose 16 percentage points.

Changing customer demand

In terms of what will have an impact on business performance, change in customer demand stands out as the most frequently mentioned factor (by 43% of respondents), as it has for the past few years. The next most commonly cited factors (by c. 1 in 4) are business model disruption, geopolitical instability, regulation, and new entrants; trade barriers are cited by 1 in 5. UK and US respondents are more concerned about changes in customer demand and less concerned about geopolitical tensions compared with those in the Netherlands and the rest of the world.

The focus of business leaders’ concerns has shifted notably over the past 2 years.  While concerns about customer demand remain at the top, worries over the threat of new entrants have increased (now cited by 25%, up from 11% two years ago) as have concerns about trade barriers (from 6% to 21%). Worries over inflation and interest rates have fallen, reflecting the steady reductions in interest rates around the world and the sense that inflation has peaked.

Data and Digital

In terms of internal issues, optimising the use of data / AI is the top focus for business leaders (cited by 39%), followed by talent acquisition and retention (33%) and business model transformation (29%). Optimising data has continued to rise in importance in the last two years, while talent has fallen from its top-ranking position.

In the UK, the focus on data and AI has risen sharply, and cost reduction has re-emerged as an issue while digital transformation and ESG have fallen as priorities. In the Netherlands, optimising data and AI remains a focus, business model transformation has risen in importance, while talent, new product development and ESG have declined.

Tariffs

Even where businesses have limited activity in the US (only a small proportion of our non-US survey sample have over 60% of their business exposed), nearly two-thirds of business leaders expect tariffs to have a negative impact on their companies.

As the tariff threat has moderated slightly over the past 6 months, some pessimism among business leaders has been replaced by uncertainty. Business leaders expect tariffs to have their biggest impact on revenue, costs, and the supply chain.  Tariffs are also undoubtedly impacting consumer demand, which lies behind the revenue concerns. As one business leader noted: “The direct financial impact is largely manageable, it’s the indirect impact on consumer confidence, particularly in the US, and supply chain disruption that are more problematic to deal with.”

With concern high, 45% of companies are currently taking action or exploring their options in response to the announced tariffs across a broad range of areas including supply chain, pricing, cost reduction, and a shift in sales focus as well as reforecasting their financials.

Dena McCallum, co-founder of Eden McCallum, says that the signs of optimism among business leaders are encouraging, despite the headwinds created by governments through their domestic and international policies. “It is a positive sign that business leaders are so optimistic about their own prospects despite their concerns about the economy and the inevitable disruption and opportunities that AI will create through changes in business models and the advent of new entrants.”

Click here for the full survey results.

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